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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 1 at the 14

Green Bay Packers 20 – Detroit Lions 6

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 28-A.Dillon up the middle to DET 14 for no gain (32-B.Branch; 55-D.Barnes).

The Three Options

GO +2.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.88 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 14, worth -0.74 EP
KICK +1.38 EP
  • 96% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.51 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 24, worth -1.44 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model