4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 2 at the 42

Denver Broncos 7 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(3:12) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson scrambles right guard to CLE 37 for 5 yards (1-J.Thornhill, 6-J.Owusu-Koramoah). FUMBLES (6-J.Owusu-Koramoah), RECOVERED by CLE-91-A.Wright at CLE 34.

The Three Options

GO +0.91 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.39 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 42, worth -2.10 EP
KICK -0.26 EP
  • 51% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 49% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 12, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model