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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 8 at the 58

Cleveland Browns 12 – Denver Broncos 27

What Actually Happened

(2:56) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-P.Walker pass incomplete short middle to 34-J.Ford [0-J.Cooper].

The Three Options

GO -0.85 EP
What Happened
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +1.88 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 58, worth -2.41 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 18, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.39 EP