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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 2 at the 16

Denver Broncos 24 – Cleveland Browns 12

What Actually Happened

(4:23) 16-W.Lutz 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +2.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.88 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 16, worth -0.58 EP
KICK +1.87 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26, worth -0.99 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP