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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 14 at the 33

Cleveland Browns 12 – Denver Broncos 24

What Actually Happened

(8:28) (Shotgun) 10-P.Walker sacked at DEN 42 for -9 yards (6-P.Locke). FUMBLES (6-P.Locke) [6-P.Locke], RECOVERED by DEN-49-A.Singleton at DEN 42.

The Three Options

GO +0.08 EP
What Happened
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.68 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 33, worth -1.51 EP
KICK +0.78 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 43, worth -1.98 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.71 EP