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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 15 at the 80

Cleveland Browns 12 – Denver Broncos 24

What Actually Happened

(12:06) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 46 yards to DEN 34, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 19-M.Mims pushed ob at DEN 36 for 2 yards (38-A.Green).

The Three Options

GO -2.73 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.56 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 80, worth -4.54 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -2.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 37, worth -2.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model