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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 4 at the 69

Denver Broncos 14 – Cleveland Browns 6

What Actually Happened

(13:18) 9-R.Dixon punts 48 yards to CLE 21, Center-48-M.Fraboni, downed by DEN-32-D.Turner-Yell.

The Three Options

GO -1.16 EP
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.97 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 69, worth -3.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 27, worth -1.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model