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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 6 at the 6

Cleveland Browns 3 – Denver Broncos 14

What Actually Happened

(:25) 7-D.Hopkins 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +2.27 EP
  • 35% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.49 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 6, worth +0.04 EP
KICK +2.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.52 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21, worth -0.37 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model