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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 1 at the 46

Cleveland Browns 3 – Denver Broncos 14

What Actually Happened

(1:19) 68-M.Dunn reported in as eligible. 27-K.Hunt right tackle to DEN 43 for 3 yards (96-T.Lancaster).

The Three Options

GO +1.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.67 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 46, worth -2.38 EP
KICK -0.68 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.56 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 13, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model