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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 11 at the 18

Cleveland Browns 0 – Denver Broncos 14

What Actually Happened

(6:02) 7-D.Hopkins 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +1.14 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.33 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 18, worth -0.44 EP
KICK +1.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 28, worth -1.27 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model