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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
Baltimore Ravens
4th & 7 at the 48
Baltimore Ravens 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 3
What Actually Happened
(5:21) 11-J.Stout punts 37 yards to LAC 11, Center-69-T.Ott, out of bounds.
The Three Options
GO
-0.47 EP
-
41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.91 EP
- 59% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 48, worth -2.78 EP
KICK
-0.92 EP
- 40% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
- 60% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.83 EP
PUNT
-0.21 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
- Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.21 EP
The Verdict
Chose PUNT
✓ matched the model
