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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 6 at the 46

Los Angeles Chargers 10 – Baltimore Ravens 13

What Actually Happened

(1:57) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short left [10-A.Maulet]. PENALTY on LAC-10-J.Herbert, Intentional Grounding, 10 yards, enforced at BAL 46.

The Three Options

GO -0.32 EP
What Happened
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +1.82 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 46, worth -1.74 EP
KICK -0.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -1.83 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 13, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model