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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 1 at the 26

Baltimore Ravens 13 – Los Angeles Chargers 10

What Actually Happened

(3:02) 9-J.Tucker 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO +2.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +3.77 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26, worth -0.90 EP
KICK +1.67 EP
What Happened
  • 87% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 36, worth -1.13 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EP