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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 5 at the 72

Baltimore Ravens 13 – Los Angeles Chargers 3

What Actually Happened

(11:37) 11-J.Stout punts 55 yards to LAC 17, Center-69-T.Ott. 12-D.Davis to LAC 40 for 23 yards (26-G.Stone; 53-D.Phillips).

The Three Options

GO -1.85 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +0.75 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 72, worth -4.39 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.98 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 30, worth -1.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model