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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 15 at the 44

Baltimore Ravens 13 – Los Angeles Chargers 3

What Actually Happened

(6:22) 11-J.Stout punts 29 yards to LAC 15, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

The Three Options

GO -0.61 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.90 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 44, worth -2.42 EP
KICK -0.55 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.82 EP
PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model