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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 66

Los Angeles Chargers 3 – Baltimore Ravens 13

What Actually Happened

(10:05) 16-J.Scott punts 53 yards to BAL 13, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay.

The Three Options

GO +0.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.76 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 66, worth -3.67 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.71 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 24, worth -0.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.91 EP