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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 14 at the 51

Baltimore Ravens 10 – Los Angeles Chargers 3

What Actually Happened

(:08) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete deep left to 7-R.Bateman.

The Three Options

GO -0.20 EP
What Happened
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +1.75 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 51, worth -1.04 EP
KICK +0.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.94 EP
  • 67% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -0.81 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.63 EP