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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 15 at the 24

Baltimore Ravens 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 3

What Actually Happened

(1:16) 9-J.Tucker 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO +0.77 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.00 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 24, worth -0.75 EP
KICK +1.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 34, worth -1.48 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model