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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 1 at the 27

Baltimore Ravens 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 3

What Actually Happened

(4:18) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 35-G.Edwards. 35-G.Edwards right end to LAC 27 for no gain (9-K.Murray; 32-A.Gilman).

The Three Options

GO +2.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.00 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 27, worth -1.22 EP
KICK +1.30 EP
  • 85% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 37, worth -1.99 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model