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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 11 at the 81

Los Angeles Chargers 3 – Baltimore Ravens 7

What Actually Happened

(9:09) 16-J.Scott punts 46 yards to BAL 35, Center-47-J.Harris. 13-D.Duvernay to BAL 38 for 3 yards (31-N.Niemann).

The Three Options

GO -2.64 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.21 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 81, worth -4.66 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -2.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 38, worth -2.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model