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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 4 at the 4

Los Angeles Rams 14 – Seattle Seahawks 16

What Actually Happened

(1:34) 8-L.Havrisik 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

The Three Options

GO +1.99 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.73 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 4, worth -0.55 EP
KICK +1.71 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21, worth -1.01 EP
PUNT -0.62 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model