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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 37

Seattle Seahawks 13 – Los Angeles Rams 7

What Actually Happened

(9:56) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 26-Z.Charbonnet ran ob at LA 28 for 9 yards (53-E.Jones).

The Three Options

GO +1.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.63 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 37, worth -2.01 EP
KICK +0.35 EP
  • 68% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 46, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model