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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 2 at the 67

Seattle Seahawks 13 – Los Angeles Rams 7

What Actually Happened

(14:10) 4-M.Dickson punts 62 yards to LA 5, Center-41-C.Stoll. 81-A.Trammell to LA 17 for 12 yards (20-J.Love, 0-D.Bush).

The Three Options

GO -0.53 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.63 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 67, worth -3.99 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.33 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 25, worth -1.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.80 EP