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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 10 at the 75

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Seattle Seahawks 10

What Actually Happened

(8:07) 42-E.Evans punts 56 yards to SEA 19, Center-47-A.Ward. 31-D.Dallas to SEA 32 for 13 yards (18-B.Skowronek, 59-T.Reeder).

The Three Options

GO -2.03 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.99 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 75, worth -4.17 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 32, worth -1.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model