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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 20 at the 36

Seattle Seahawks 7 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(8:31) 5-J.Myers 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO -0.65 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.60 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 36, worth -2.14 EP
KICK +0.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.39 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 46, worth -2.79 EP
PUNT -0.65 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model