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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 34

Seattle Seahawks 7 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(11:30) 26-Z.Charbonnet up the middle to LA 26 for 8 yards (37-Q.Lake).

The Three Options

GO +1.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.46 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 34, worth -2.10 EP
KICK +0.32 EP
  • 74% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.37 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 44, worth -2.67 EP
PUNT -0.67 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model