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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 9 at the 51

New York Jets 0 – Buffalo Bills 6

What Actually Happened

(2:26) 5-T.Morstead punts 51 yards to end zone, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Touchback. Kick into end zone.

The Three Options

GO -1.22 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.89 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 51, worth -3.03 EP
KICK -1.83 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -3.03 EP
PUNT -0.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 14, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model