Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 17 at the 55

Buffalo Bills 29 – New York Jets 6

(10:48) 8-S.Martin punts 31 yards to NYJ 24, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-85-Q.Morris.

The Three Options

GO -1.25 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.27 EP
73% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 55, worth -2.93 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model