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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 43

New York Jets 6 – Buffalo Bills 29

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 7-T.Boyle up the middle to BUF 42 for 1 yard (93-L.Joseph).

The Three Options

GO +1.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.06 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 43, worth -1.92 EP
KICK -0.44 EP
  • 45% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.56 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 12, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model