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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 3 at the 59

New York Jets 6 – Buffalo Bills 22

What Actually Happened

(7:35) 5-T.Morstead punts 55 yards to BUF 4, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 11-D.Harty pushed ob at BUF 14 for 10 yards (87-C.Uzomah).

The Three Options

GO -0.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.19 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 59, worth -3.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.83 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 18, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model