Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 20 at the 68

New York Jets 0 – Buffalo Bills 3

(12:12) 5-T.Morstead punts 40 yards to BUF 28, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 11-D.Harty to BUF 30 for 2 yards (42-T.Hennessy).

The Three Options

GO -2.70 EP

22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.64 EP
78% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 68, worth -4.19 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model