4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 19 at the 30

Buffalo Bills 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(13:35) 2-T.Bass 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +0.41 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.26 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 30, worth -1.05 EP
KICK +1.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 77% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 40, worth -1.83 EP
PUNT +0.17 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth +0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model