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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 17 at the 82

New York Jets 0 – Buffalo Bills 9

What Actually Happened

(10:05) 5-T.Morstead punts 56 yards to BUF 26, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 11-D.Harty ran ob at BUF 34 for 8 yards (42-T.Hennessy).

The Three Options

GO -3.26 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.58 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 82, worth -4.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -2.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 40, worth -2.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model