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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 11 at the 16

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(6:46) 2-D.Carlson 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +0.83 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.78 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 16, worth -0.91 EP
KICK +1.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 26, worth -1.39 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model