Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 8 at the 67

Miami Dolphins 20 – Las Vegas Raiders 13

(6:34) 16-J.Bailey punts 66 yards to LV 1, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 3-D.Carter to LV 13 for 12 yards (45-D.Riley).

The Three Options

GO -1.49 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.80 EP
60% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 67, worth -3.66 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model