4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 3 at the 31

Las Vegas Raiders 13 – Miami Dolphins 20

What Actually Happened

(8:33) (Shotgun) 4-A.O'Connell pass incomplete deep left to 16-J.Meyers.

The Three Options

GO +1.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.25 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 31, worth -1.41 EP
KICK +0.90 EP
  • 76% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 41, worth -1.92 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model