4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 4 at the 84

Miami Dolphins 20 – Las Vegas Raiders 13

What Actually Happened

(11:03) 16-J.Bailey punts 34 yards to 50, Center-44-B.Ferguson, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.68 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.99 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 84, worth -4.75 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -2.11 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 42, worth -2.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP