4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 1 at the 33

Miami Dolphins 17 – Las Vegas Raiders 13

What Actually Happened

(:30) 7-J.Sanders 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +2.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.87 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 33, worth -1.35 EP
KICK +0.99 EP
What Happened
  • 72% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 43, worth -2.03 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.28 EP