Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 16 at the 64

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(12:20) 6-A.Cole punts 50 yards to MIA 14, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 11-C.Wilson to MIA 28 for 14 yards (80-J.Horsted). PENALTY on MIA-22-E.Campbell, Illegal Blindside Block, 14 yards, enforced at MIA 28.

The Three Options

GO -2.23 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.63 EP
74% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 64, worth -3.93 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model