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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 7 at the 31

Miami Dolphins 14 – Las Vegas Raiders 13

What Actually Happened

(8:27) 7-J.Sanders 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +0.93 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.58 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 31, worth -1.25 EP
KICK +1.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 41, worth -1.97 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model