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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 2 at the 60

Las Vegas Raiders 13 – Miami Dolphins 14

What Actually Happened

(12:50) 6-A.Cole punts 47 yards to MIA 13, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 11-C.Wilson to MIA 21 for 8 yards (22-A.Abdullah).

The Three Options

GO -0.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.21 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 60, worth -3.46 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.98 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 19, worth -0.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EP