Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 7 at the 90

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – Miami Dolphins 7

(7:39) 6-A.Cole punts 53 yards to MIA 37, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 11-C.Wilson.

The Three Options

GO -2.91 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 83, worth +0.49 EP
59% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 90, worth -5.30 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model