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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 15 at the 46

Carolina Panthers 0 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(8:26) 10-J.Hekker punts 29 yards to DAL 17, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

The Three Options

GO -0.72 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +4.13 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 46, worth -2.29 EP
KICK -0.36 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT +0.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 13, worth +0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model