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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 2 at the 51

Carolina Panthers 3 – Dallas Cowboys 17

What Actually Happened

(8:08) 9-B.Young pass short left to 19-A.Thielen pushed ob at DAL 35 for 16 yards (2-J.Lewis).

The Three Options

GO +0.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.86 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 51, worth -2.74 EP
KICK -1.21 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 14, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model