Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 8 at the 63

Dallas Cowboys 17 – Carolina Panthers 3

What Actually Happened

(11:05) 5-B.Anger punts 63 yards to end zone, Center-44-T.Sieg, Touchback. PENALTY on DAL-25-N.Wright, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CAR 20.

The Three Options

GO -1.30 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.24 EP
60% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 63, worth -3.68 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model