Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 7 at the 72

Carolina Panthers 3 – Dallas Cowboys 17

(13:37) 10-J.Hekker punts 52 yards to DAL 20, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

The Three Options

GO -1.81 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.95 EP
62% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 72, worth -4.14 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model