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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 12 at the 77

Carolina Panthers 0 – Dallas Cowboys 10

What Actually Happened

(9:53) 10-J.Hekker punts 50 yards to DAL 27, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin. PENALTY on DAL-30-J.Thomas, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 27.

The Three Options

GO -2.34 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.95 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 77, worth -4.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 34, worth -1.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model