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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 3 at the 68

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(13:44) 5-B.Anger punts 55 yards to CAR 13, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 11-I.Smith-Marsette.

The Three Options

GO -1.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.36 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 68, worth -4.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.65 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 26, worth -1.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP