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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 9 at the 11

Dallas Cowboys 7 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(11:05) 17-B.Aubrey 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +1.62 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.08 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP
KICK +1.45 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.54 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 22, worth -1.24 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model