Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 4 at the 63

Baltimore Ravens 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 3

What Actually Happened

(2:47) 11-J.Stout punts 56 yards to CIN 7, Center-69-T.Ott. 15-C.Jones to CIN 27 for 20 yards (88-C.Kolar). PENALTY on BAL-43-J.Hill, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at CIN 27.

The Three Options

GO -0.04 EP

51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +3.05 EP
49% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 63, worth -3.21 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model